U.S. jobless claims, seen as a proxy for layoffs, fell by 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 204,000 during the holiday week. While signaling rare labor market tightness, the recent data has also strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve to continue with its aggressive stance. Moreover, in the minutes of the Fed’s December meeting released yesterday, the Central Bank seemed to be…
Today I want to review the 5 key reasons to still be bearish in 2023. That starts by appreciating that the recessionary storm clouds are darkening over the first half of 2023. And if a recession is in the air, it creates this very negative vicious cycle: Recession > Job Loss > Lower Income > Lower Spending > Lower Corporate…
The recent bear market rally is not surprising. That is because stocks dropped as far as they should until there is greater proof of the pain that is to come in the economy. In particular, investors need to see more glaring weakness in two key areas before pressing lower: corporate earnings and employment. Well, here we are in the midst…
Over the weekend, I saw a news item that really stood out. That being an extensive CNBC survey showing that 45% of economists are predicting recession in next 12 months. On the surface, that news byte doesn’t sound too bad. Meaning it feels like it could go either way, which gives us some hope that all could be well. Now let me…
Every investor appreciates that recessions and bear markets go hand in hand. But the definition of a recession often seems more difficult to pin down. So are we in a recession? And if not, then does that mean that disaster has been averted or that the pain train is still rolling towards investors? This is an important debate because it…
Various macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns have roiled the stock market so far this year. Investors and analysts have been worried about a recession as the Federal Reserve maintains its aggressive stance to tame the surging inflation. The Federal Reserve meets today to hike the benchmark interest rates for the fourth time this year, and Street expects the central bank to…
The truth is that it’s very difficult to gauge bottom from price action alone. You only have to look at the bottoming process from past bear markets to show how difficult it is to call it over. And why investors are so frequently pulled into “sucker’s rallies” before true bottom is found. This brings us back around to an exploration…
My solution to tame the bear market is a combination of 3 inverse stock ETFs and 3 shorting bond ETFs to make money as the market heads lower. In fact, in June alone the S&P 500 is down -11.07% while our strategy has produced a +5.04% gain. So clearly this strategy is working. Right now you don’t need more evidence…
So far, 2022 has been a rough year for technology stocks. Investors’ concerns over the Federal Reserve’s tighter monetary policy to fight multi-decade high inflation, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the possibility of an economic slowdown have driven a broad sell-off in tech stocks. However, the recent tech sell-off provides a golden buying opportunity for investors because many quality stocks are now trading…
Over the last month, we have experienced a major selloff across nearly every asset class. The S&P 500 is down by 9.4%, while bonds are also down evidenced by the 6% drop in the iShares 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). In the commodity complex, the picture is more mixed. Gold is down by 8%. There is also weakness in…